Daily Income Prediction at Budiman Swalayan Bukittinggi Using Compound Poisson Process

Abstract

Budiman swalayan is one of the main shopping centers in Bukittinggi that requires a statistical approach to predict fluctuating customer visit patterns. The high variation in visits and transactions hampers stock and service planning. To overcome this, this study applies a compound Poisson process. Data were collected for 3 months and analyzed using statistical tests, namely Kolmogorov-Smirnov and Chi-Square. The Kolmogorov-Smirnov test was used to test the distribution of transaction values, while the Chi-Square test was used to test the suitability of the distribution of the number of customers. The results show that customer arrivals follow a Poisson distribution with an average of 9.89, and transactions are exponentially distributed with an average of Rp68,133,342.89. Total daily sales per group follow a compound Poisson process with an expectation of Rp673,763,057.5. These findings are useful in optimizing retail management more precisely.